Every number on this page comes from a SQL query against the BigEarnings production database. Healthcare excluded throughout. Snapshot date: 2026-05-18.
The headline edge
Across 939 mid-cap+ beats and 302 misses reported in the last 120 days:
| Outcome | Sample | Avg 1-day | Avg 1-week | Avg 1-month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beat | 939 | +0.79% | +1.67% | -1.18% |
| Miss | 302 | -1.30% | +0.13% | -2.73% |
| Inline | 46 | -0.26% | +1.36% | -2.93% |
The ~2 percentage point gap on day 1 between a beat and a miss is the headline edge. Stacked across 50-100 prints a year on a watchlist of any size, that's the bedrock economic value of tracking earnings. One-month follow-through is currently negative across the board — regime-specific. When the Market Model score is higher and breadth is stronger, the one-month tail extends positive. (The Performance guide covers how to act on this.)
Biggest 1-day winners — last 120 days
| Ticker | Date | 1-day | 1-week | 1-month | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRN | 2026-01-27 | +36.5% | +18.4% | +18.5% | Consumer Staples |
| FSLY | 2026-02-11 | +35.6% | +102.3% | +164.0% | Technology |
| SLAB | 2026-02-04 | +32.6% | +1.8% | -0.3% | Technology |
| MXL | 2026-04-23 | +31.9% | +106.6% | pending | Technology |
| AKAM | 2026-05-07 | +29.6% | +33.4% | pending | Technology |
| INOD | 2026-05-07 | +29.5% | +97.5% | pending | Technology |
| FLNC | 2026-05-06 | +29.1% | +63.0% | pending | Utilities |
Pattern: heavy concentration in Technology. Semi cap-equipment names clustered in early February. Two distinct sub-stories — software-infrastructure (FSLY, NET, AKAM) and connectivity hardware. A user filtering Top Picks by Tech in early Feb would have caught the wave. The Find a Winner flow shows the exact chain.
Biggest 1-month compounders — last 180 days ($2B+)
| Ticker | Date | 1-day | 1-week | 1-month | Beat? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLY | 2026-02-11 | +35.6% | +102.3% | +164.0% | beat |
| AXTI | 2026-02-19 | -1.4% | +55.9% | +127.8% | miss |
| SOC | 2026-02-27 | -0.5% | +74.2% | +116.2% | mixed |
| AAOI | 2026-02-26 | +15.9% | +88.4% | +82.9% | pending |
| AEHR | 2026-04-07 | +0.1% | +48.0% | +81.6% | pending |
Two things to notice. AXTI miss → +127.8% in a month. The headline reaction is not the trade. Several of these prints had small initial moves followed by enormous follow-through. The Performance page is built precisely to surface this kind of pattern.
Biggest 1-day disasters — last 120 days, $5B+
| Ticker | Date | 1-day | 1-week | 1-month | Beat? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRIM | 2026-05-05 | -26.1% | -44.2% | pending | pending |
| MDB | 2026-03-02 | -24.4% | -16.4% | -23.3% | pending |
| DUOL | 2026-02-26 | -21.5% | -13.5% | -18.8% | pending |
| RBLX | 2026-04-30 | -21.5% | -19.0% | pending | pending |
| NET | 2026-05-07 | -18.9% | -22.2% | pending | pending |
| HUBS | 2026-05-07 | -18.6% | -24.7% | pending | pending |
| PINS | 2026-02-12 | -18.1% | -9.5% | -1.9% | beat |
| RMBS | 2026-02-02 | -15.6% | -2.5% | -19.1% | beat |
PINS and RMBS both beat consensus and both got destroyed. Beats don't equal upside in this regime. Software (MDB, NET, HUBS) all dropped 18-24% on a single Wednesday (May 7) — sector-wide derate. A user who ran the Performance page Sunday night would have seen software momentum weakening and trimmed exposure. The Avoid Disasters flow codifies this routine.
The PLTR compounder — full history
| Date | Period | Beat? | Price at ER | 1-day | 1-week | 1-month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-13 | Q4 2022 | beat | $7.61 | +21.2% | +11.3% | +3.8% |
| 2024-02-05 | Q4 2023 | beat | $16.72 | +30.8% | +49.8% | +56.5% |
| 2026-02-02 | Q4 2025 | beat | $147.76 | +7.0% | -3.3% | +3.7% |
| 2026-05-04 | Q1 2026 | pending | $142.44 | -2.7% | -6.3% | pending |
From the Feb 2024 print, PLTR went from $16.72 to ~$26 in a month on a 0.1 EPS surprise. By Feb 2026, the stock was 9x higher and the reaction had cooled. Small beats no longer move the needle once a story is fully priced. The Ticker Detail guide covers reading this lifecycle on any name.
Sector cohort table — last 120 days
| Sector | N | Avg 1d | Avg 1w | Avg 1m | Beat rate % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 221 | +0.01 | +2.30 | +5.72 | 39.8 |
| Communication Services | 206 | +0.68 | +0.94 | +1.38 | 30.1 |
| Utilities | 88 | -0.20 | -1.13 | +0.97 | 37.5 |
| Technology | 644 | +1.27 | +1.00 | -0.62 | 44.6 |
| Financials | 698 | +0.44 | +0.32 | -1.97 | 49.7 |
| Real Estate | 230 | +0.18 | +0.26 | -3.41 | 60.0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 455 | +0.50 | -0.76 | -3.64 | 32.1 |
Two reads. Energy has been the trade — +5.72% average 1-month follow-through. Highest by a country mile. High beat rate does not equal upside — Real Estate has the highest beat rate (60%) and the second-worst 1-month return (-3.41%). The market isn't rewarding the beats. This is exactly the kind of disconnect the Performance page surfaces (and the Performance guide explains) — that pure "beat the number" trackers miss entirely.